Journal of Information Resources Management ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 80-89.doi: 10.13365/j.jirm.2024.03.080

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Research on the Organization and Management of Anticipatory Intelligence Work

Li Guojun1,2 Wang Yanfei2 Xu Yang2   

  1. 1.Peking University Library, Beijing, 100871
    2. Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing, 100871
  • Online:2024-05-26 Published:2024-06-14
  • About author:Li Guojun, associate research librarian and PhD candidate, specializes in intelligence analysis and knowledge graphs. Wang Yanfei, professor and PhD supervisor, focuses on intelligence analysis. Xu Yang (corresponding author), tenured associate professor and PhD supervisor, also focuses on intelligence analysis, Email: yang.xu@pku.edu.cn.
  • Supported by:
    This article is one of the research outcomes of the general project "Theoretical and Practical Research on WIKID Exploitation" funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China (21BTQ009).

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explore the practical experience of U.S. intelligence agencies in carrying out anticipatory intelligence work, and to provide reference and inspiration for China's intelligence agencies. Taking the four anticipatory intelligence projects initiated by the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) as cases, it analyzes their mission scenarios, organized scientific research mode, implementation process and influence. This paper organizes the practical process of anticipatory intelligence work from four aspects, including the connotation of mission scenarios, the sources of clues, the indicators for judging, and the construction of teams. This paper summarizes the characteristics and revelations of anticipatory intelligence work from five aspects, including cross-domain synergy, quantitative assessment, win-win situation of science and commerce, diversified team, and impact assessment. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for China's intelligence agencies to carry out anticipatory intelligence work.

Key words: Anticipatory intelligence, Organizational management research, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, Intelligence agency, Anticipatory intelligence education

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