关键词: 技术跃迁, 技术演化, 反事实分析, PSM-SCM, 领域影响

Abstract: Technological leap is generally regarded as a discontinuous evolutionary process that breaks through existing technological trajectories, which may trigger the reconstruction of technological paradigms and changes in industrial systems. However, most existing studies remain at the qualitative analysis level, lacking quantitative tests and empirical evidence based on specific technologies. Taking additive manufacturing technology as a case, this study constructs a counterfactual analysis method integrating propensity score matching and synthetic control method (PSM-SCM). By estimating the counterfactual outcomes of leap technologies under non-leap scenarios, it eliminates the endogenous evolutionary trend of technologies so as to quantitatively evaluate the impact of technological leap on subsequent domain development. The results show that technological leap generally exerts a significant promoting effect on subsequent domain development, yet different technologies present differentiated characteristics in dimensions including impact breadth, impact depth, and impact persistence. The multidimensional measurement system of domain impact and the PSM-SCM counterfactual analysis method developed in this study provide a new analytical framework and methodological tool for identifying and evaluating the impacts of various technological evolutionary activities on domain development.

Key words: Technological leap, Technological evolution, Counterfactual analysis, PSM-SCM, Domain impact