关键词: 突发事件, 应急管理, 仿真模型

Abstract:

The simulation analysis describes and explains the formation mechanism of emergent events, thus serving as a crucial tool to enhance the decision making capacity of human being when facing emergent events. To provide feasible patterns of simulation analysis for the government and relevant sectors, this paper successively reviews on the construction process of   simulation modeling oriented to emergent events from the perspective of conception design, system design and application design. Conception design features the process of scenario description, construction and evolution. System design illustrates the process of simulation modeling and assessment through the comparison of present simulation methods and platforms. Application design reviews the current situation of simulation models applied in three kinds of emergent events. The challenges existing in current simulation analysis are lastly pointed out.

Key words: Emergent events, Emergency management, Simulation model