关键词: 重大突发事件, 网络舆情, 行动者网络, 系统仿真, 组态分析

Abstract: The occurrence of major emergencies often leads to a surge in online public opinion, making the effective guidance and control of such opinions a significant challenge in current public opinion management. From the perspective of actor-network theory, this study constructs an analysis framework for guiding and controlling online public opinion, which includes actors such as events, media, netizens, and government. A system dynamics model is employed to simulate the mechanism of online public opinion guidance and control for major emergencies. Through sensitivity analysis, the key influencing factors are identified. Based on this, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method is applied to analyze the conditions configuration to explore effective pathways for online public opinion guidance and control in major emergencies. This study reveals that the severity of the event, the intensity of media coverage, the emotional intensity of netizens, and the level of government attention play crucial roles in guiding public opinion. It is essential to further strengthen the ability to analyze complex influencing factors, emphasize the roles of media and netizen actors, and enhance the organic linkage and effective collaboration between government attention and various actors to ultimately achieve effective guidance and control of online public opinion in major emergencies.

Key words: Major emergencies, Online public opinion, Actor network, System simulation, Configuration analysis