信息资源管理学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (5): 82-98.doi: 10.13365/j.jirm.2025.05.082

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于政策-技术主题关联的技术机会识别与评估研究——以新能源汽车领域为例

张子涵1,2 李阳1,2 吴柯烨1,2   

  1. 1.南京大学信息管理学院,南京,210023; 
    2.南京大学数据智能与交叉创新实验室,南京,210023
  • 出版日期:2025-09-26 发布日期:2025-10-31
  • 作者简介:张子涵,博士研究生,研究方向为政策计量、技术预测;李阳(通讯作者),博士,副教授,博士生导师,研究方向为情报研究、数据治理,Email:liyang@nju.edu.cn;吴柯烨,博士研究生,研究方向为专利计量、技术预测。
  • 基金资助:
    本文系国家社科基金重大项目“前沿交叉领域识别与融合创新路径预测方法研究”(23&ZD225)研究成果之一。

Technology Opportunities Identification and Evaluation Based on Policy-Technology Topic Association:A Case Study of the New Energy Vehicle Industry

Zhang Zihan1,2 Li Yang1,2 Wu Keye1,2   

  1. 1.School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023; 
    2.Laboratory for Data Intelligence and Cross-Innovation, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023
  • Online:2025-09-26 Published:2025-10-31
  • About author:Zhang Zihan, Ph.D.candidate, research interests include policy measurement and technology forecasting; Li Yang(corresponding author), Ph.D., associate professor and doctoral supervisor, research interests include information research and data governance,Email: liyang@nju.edu.cn; Wu Keye, Ph.D. candidate, research interests include patent measurement and technology forecasting.
  • Supported by:
    This research is supported by the Major Project of the National Social Science Foundation "Research on Innovation Paths and Prediction Methods for Identification and Integration of Frontier Cross-Disciplinary Fields"(23&ZD225).

摘要: 当前技术机会识别研究大多局限于从技术自身特点发掘潜在技术机会,对直接反映国家重大战略需求的政策文件关注不够。鉴于此,提出一种基于政策-技术主题关联的技术机会识别方法,旨在挖掘政策需求与技术发展之间存在的势差与鸿沟。具体而言,用政策文件表示政策需求,以专利技术代表技术发展程度,将技术机会识别拆分为政策和技术的主题抽取、主题关联、机会挖掘与评估三个模块:首先构建LDA主题模型,分别抽取政策、技术主题;其次使用词嵌入和层次聚类方法建立政策主题与技术主题的映射关系,获得政策-技术关联主题、技术主题等;进而计算技术活跃度与政策需求度指标,构建技术机会坐标,根据挖掘规则精准定位技术机会;最后以新能源汽车领域为例进行实证研究,验证研究框架的有效性,为国家与科研机构加速布局该领域提供技术机会情报支持。

关键词: 技术机会识别, 主题关联, 政策分析, 新能源汽车, 文本挖掘

Abstract: Previous studies on technology opportunity identification are mostly limited to the perspective of technology itself, pay insufficient attention to policy documents that directly reflect the major strategic demands of a country. In view of this, this paper proposes a technology opportunity identification method based on policy-technology topic association, aiming to explore the potential gaps between policy demands and technological development. Specifically, this paper uses policy documents to represent policy demands and patent technologies to represent the degree of technological development. The identification of technology opportunities is divided into three modules: topic extraction of policies and technologies, topic association, and identification and evaluation of policy-technology integration opportunities. Firstly, this paper identifies policy and technology topics by constructing a LDA topic model. Then, word embedding and hierarchical clustering methods are used to establish the mapping relationship between policy and technology. This paper locates technology opportunity by constructing identification quadrant according to the identification rules. Finally, This study takes the field of new energy vehicles as an example to verify the effectiveness of research framework, which provides information support for country and research institutions to accelerate the layout in this field.

Key words: Technical opportunity identification, Topic association, Policy analysis, New energy vehicle industry, Text mining

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