关键词: 生存分析, 　网络舆情, 　突发自然灾害, 　网络媒体

Abstract:

Based on emergent natural disaster network news, we use the survival analysis method and content analysis to describe the news lifecycle of the Earthquake and the Typhoon disaster events that reported by network media, exploring the factors that influence the survival process and summing up the periodic characteristics of two disaster news. We conclude that the following elements including the number of casualties suffered by the disaster, the disaster level and the early warning information related to disaster have significant influence on the news lifecycle reported by network media. In addition, network news coverage of the Earthquake shows “outbreak” and “long-tail” characteristics, the Typhoon has the characteristics of “tight first but loose afterwards”. The study reveals the rule of emergent natural disaster event reported by network media.

Key words: Survival analysis, 　Internet public opinion, 　Emergent nature disaster, 　Network media