关键词: VAR模型, 　信息基础设施, 　工业化, 　信息化, 　两化融合

Abstract:

Using time series data of China’s length of long distance optical cable lines and gross domestic product of industry in 1992-2012, the paper exams on the relationship between industrialization and information infrastructure by vector autoregression model (VAR). The paper concludes that: the long-run equilibrium relationship exits in between information infrastructure and industrialization, that is, the gross domestic product of industry increases 4%, a 1% rises in information infrastructure; The contribution rate of information infrastructure playing on the industrialization fluctuation sets a gradually rising while the contribution rate of industrialization on information infrastructure fluctuation is less. Information infrastructure is the Granger reason of industrialization, but industrialization is not a Granger cause of information infrastructure.

Key words: VAR model, 　Information infrastructure, 　Industrialization, 　Informatization, 　Integration of informatization and industrialization