美国预见性情报工作的组织管理及启示研究

doi:10.13365/j.jirm.2024.03.080

信息资源管理学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 80-89.doi: 10.13365/j.jirm.2024.03.080

美国预见性情报工作的组织管理及启示研究

李国俊^1,2　王延飞²　徐扬²

1. 北京大学图书馆，北京，100871
2. 北京大学信息管理系，北京，100871

出版日期:2024-05-26 发布日期:2024-06-14
作者简介:李国俊，副研究馆员，博士研究生，研究方向为情报分析、知识图谱；王延飞，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为情报分析；徐扬（通讯作者），长聘副教授，博士生导师，研究方向为情报分析，Email: yang.xu@pku.edu.cn。
基金资助:
本文系国家社会科学基金一般项目“情报刻画的理论与实践研究”（21BTQ009）的研究成果之一。

Research on the Organization and Management of Anticipatory Intelligence Work

Li Guojun^1,2　Wang Yanfei²　Xu Yang²

1.Peking University Library, Beijing, 100871
2. Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing, 100871

Online:2024-05-26 Published:2024-06-14
About author:Li Guojun, associate research librarian and PhD candidate, specializes in intelligence analysis and knowledge graphs. Wang Yanfei, professor and PhD supervisor, focuses on intelligence analysis. Xu Yang (corresponding author), tenured associate professor and PhD supervisor, also focuses on intelligence analysis, Email: yang.xu@pku.edu.cn.
Supported by:
This article is one of the research outcomes of the general project "Theoretical and Practical Research on WIKID Exploitation" funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China (21BTQ009).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文旨在探索美国情报机构开展预见性情报工作的实践经验，为我国情报机构提供借鉴和启示。以美国情报高级研究计划局（IARPA）发起的四个预见性情报项目为案例，分析了它们的任务场景、有组织科研模式、实施过程和影响力；从任务场景的内涵、线索的来源、评判的指标、团队的建设等四个方面，梳理了预见性情报工作的实践流程；从跨领域的协同、量化的评估、科商的双赢、多元的团队、影响的评估等五个方面，总结了预见性情报工作的特点和启示，并提出了我国情报机构开展预见性情报工作的若干建议。

关键词: 预见性情报, 组织管理研究, 美国情报高级研究计划局, 情报机构, 预见性情报教

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explore the practical experience of U.S. intelligence agencies in carrying out anticipatory intelligence work, and to provide reference and inspiration for China's intelligence agencies. Taking the four anticipatory intelligence projects initiated by the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) as cases, it analyzes their mission scenarios, organized scientific research mode, implementation process and influence. This paper organizes the practical process of anticipatory intelligence work from four aspects, including the connotation of mission scenarios, the sources of clues, the indicators for judging, and the construction of teams. This paper summarizes the characteristics and revelations of anticipatory intelligence work from five aspects, including cross-domain synergy, quantitative assessment, win-win situation of science and commerce, diversified team, and impact assessment. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for China's intelligence agencies to carry out anticipatory intelligence work.

Key words: Anticipatory intelligence, Organizational management research, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, Intelligence agency, Anticipatory intelligence education

中图分类号:

G351.1

李国俊　王延飞　徐扬. 美国预见性情报工作的组织管理及启示研究[J]. 信息资源管理学报, 2024, 14(3): 80-89.

Li Guojun　Wang Yanfei　Xu Yang. Research on the Organization and Management of Anticipatory Intelligence Work[J]. Journal of Information Resources Management, 2024, 14(3): 80-89.

美国预见性情报工作的组织管理及启示研究

Research on the Organization and Management of Anticipatory Intelligence Work

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