信息资源管理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (5): 17-26.doi: 10.13365/j.jirm.2021.05.017

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

重大突发公共卫生事件风险研判与决策模型构建研究

刘冰 肖高飞 晁世育   

  1. 天津师范大学管理学院,天津,300387
  • 出版日期:2021-09-26 发布日期:2021-11-10
  • 作者简介:刘冰,博士,教授,博导,研究方向为政府信息资源管理与应急信息服务、信息服务与用户信息行为、数据(信息)治理与信息质量评价,Email:brother_lb@126.com;肖高飞(通讯作者),硕士生,研究方向为政府信息资源管理与应急信息服务,Email: 1641564615@qq.com;晁世育,硕士生,研究方向为政府信息资源管理与应急信息服务,专利信息服务,Email: chaoshiyu0222@Gmail.com。
  • 基金资助:
    本文系国家社会科学基金国家应急管理体系建设研究专项项目“基于信息聚合和知识发现的突发重大公共卫生事件风险研判与决策协同机制研究”(20VYJ062)阶段性研究成果之一。

Research on the Construction of Risk Assessment and Decision-making Model of Major Public Health Emergency

Liu Bing Xiao Gaofei Chao Shiyu   

  1. Management School of Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin,300387
  • Online:2021-09-26 Published:2021-11-10

摘要: 为建立适应重大突发公共卫生事件发展演化不同阶段特点的风险研判与决策机制,发挥参与主体的协同合作作用和信息与知识的决策支持和驱动作用,构建形成了由生命周期、风险研判与决策、参与主体、信息与知识四个独立核心层面,以及制约因素和限制条件为调节变量的具有动态性和柔性的重大突发公共卫生事件风险研判与决策模型,可以为重大突发公共卫生事件应急管理领域研究提供科学可证的理论框架,指导重大突发公共卫生事件下的风险研判与决策实践。

关键词: 重大突发公共卫生事件, 风险研判, 风险决策, 协同决策, 应急管理

Abstract: In order to establish a risk assessment and decision-making mechanism that adapts to the characteristics of different stages of the development and evolution of major public health emergencies, and play the collaborative and cooperative role of the participants and the decision support and driving role of information and knowledge, this paper constructs a dynamic and flexible risk assessment and decision-making model of major public health emergencies, which consists of four independent core levels : life cycle, risk assessment and decision-making, participants, information and knowledge, and the restricting factors and constraint conditions are the moderator variables. It provides a scientific and verifiable theoretical framework for the study of emergency management of major public health emergencies, and guides the risk assessment and decision-making practice under major public health emergencies.

Key words: Major public health emergencies, Risk assesment, Risk decision-making, Collaborative decision-making, Emergency management

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