关键词: Gompertz模型, Logistic模型, 动态h指数, 科研评价

Abstract:

H index is not only a comprehensive index to evaluate the academic level of scientific researchers, the influence of scientific research institutions and journals, but also a non-parametric statistic. Compared with the previous single static h-index study, the study of its dynamics over time can better reflect the academic changes of the relevant objects, and has more predictive significance. By collecting and sorting out the cited data of 970 scientific researchers in five disciplines, and calculating the corresponding annual hindex by programming, the general law of dynamic h-index was studied. On the basis of the analysis of the existing research, this paper focused on comparing and applying the logistic curve model and gompertz curve model to model the growth and evolution process of scientific researchers. As far as the selected data are concerned, the fitting effect of logistic curve model and gompertz curve model is very good, and R2 basically reaches above 0.90, and the fitting effect of the former is better than that of the latter; furthermore, the comparison of disciplines proves that logistic curve can better reflect the evolution essence of h index; finally, comparing the changing characteristics of the growth model in detail, the logistic curve model fits the dynamic h-index variation law more scientifically.

Key words: Gompertz model, Logistic model, Dynamic h-index, Research evaluation